The Spanish economy experienced a rebound of 19.8% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, at the worst moment of the pandemic in the first state of alarm with the confinement of homes and the generalized shutdown of the exercise.

With respect to the first quarter, in which the gross domestic product (GDP) fell again, the rise was 2.8 %, well above the most optimistic estimates. The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, recently announced that the year-on-year growth would be 18%, but the evolution has even exceeded those forecasts.

After a still negative first quarter affected by the third wave of the covid and the effects of the storm Filomena, activity accelerated until it reached a rate of activity that yields these results. With the rebound of 19.8% published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) in its progress in national accounting, the period of negative interannual rates that began in the first quarter of 20200 ends, with the beginning of the crisis triggered by the coronavirus.

The First Vice President and Minister of the Economy, Nadia Calviño, has assured that the economic and labor indicators published this week “confirm that a strong economic recovery is underway accompanied by a good rate of job creation.”

In a video distributed to the media, Calviño has been confident that the economic recovery will be “full” in 2022 thanks to vaccination and the measures implemented by the Government. He also insisted that the objective is to consolidate growth and job creation to achieve a way out of the crisis that “leaves no one behind.”

The contrast with respect to the same period a year ago, when the toughest rules of the state of alarm still prevailed with the confinement and the reduction of generalized activity is very evident The contribution of national demand to year-on-year growth in the second quarter is of 20.3 points, 22.9 points higher than in the first quarter. Consumption skyrocketed with a growth of 6.6% compared to the January-March period and 29.5% in the interannual rate, which contrasts with the decrease of 4.2% a year ago.

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For its part, external demand presented a contribution of −0.5 points , 1.1 points more than in the previous quarter. The gradual lifting of restrictions allowed household consumption spending to increase by 20.8% compared to the same quarter of 2020. In the interannual rate, the increase was 29.5%. On the other hand, the expenditure of the Public Administrations shows a growth of 3.4%.

Investment registered a year-on-year variation of 18.9%, 22.9 points higher than the previous quarter. This component still decreased 1.5% compared to the first quarter.

Comparison effect
In the first quarter, GDP experienced a 0.4% decline compared to the quarter of last year and a year-on-year decline of 4.2%. The dynamism of 19.8% in the interannual rate registered in the second quarter is a consequence of the effect compared to the second quarter of 2020, when the economy was fully affected by the outbreak of the pandemic, even going into hibernation.

From the supply side, all sectors of activity increased, except agriculture (-1.2%), and the advances in trade, transport and hospitality (52.1%), the manufacturing industry (31.9% ) stood out. ) and artistic, recreational and other services activities (31.3%). All this translated, in turn, into a substantial reduction in the number of workers subject to temporary employment regulation files (erte) o.

Employment, measured in hours worked, increased by 4.4% compared to the previous quarter, while full-time equivalent jobs decreased by 0.2%, due to the rise in hours worked and the increase in the average day.

In any case, the INE explains that the data advance is prepared with the information available until May, as well as with some results advanced to June. This fact, he points out, together with the difficulty that a change in the situation such as that of the covid crisis has meant for statistical measurement, “suggests that future reviews of the results published today may be of a greater magnitude than usual” .

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